The legendary investor behind Renaissance Technologies (RenTec), Jim Simons passed away on Friday, 10 May 2024. May he rest in peace. Having said that, I have to address all the fawning commentary that burst forth all over the internet over the weekend. Example: an admirer posted a Tweet stating in all caps that, "IF YOU INVESTED JUST $1,000 … Continue reading The dubious legend: Jim Simons and RenTec Medallion Fund
Investing: how not to lose
We're in a new game, requiring new thinking, versatility and resilience. Navigating the markets has become increasingly difficult and rife with risk. We should recognize however, that even in the best of times, investors have a strong tendency to underperform market benchmarks. Over a 20-year period from 1988 through 2007, the S&P 500 returned 11.81% annually. … Continue reading Investing: how not to lose
Cocoa “mayhem” and trend following
Few investors pay attention to cocoa prices, but starting in June, cocoa has been in the news quite a bit. The reason: cocoa prices nearly doubled over the past 12 months. The higher they rose, the more they caught the attention of traders and the inevitable expert commentariat.. Here we have another confirmation that the … Continue reading Cocoa “mayhem” and trend following
Mean Reversion or Trend Following?
All investment strategies fall in one of these two categories. Which one's better? Surprise: it's trend following. In his most recent podcast, Joris Bastien, founder and CEO of Quantraxia rightly summed up the universe of investment strategies: "... however you look at it, investment strategies - quantitative or not - fall into two broad categories: … Continue reading Mean Reversion or Trend Following?
At the precipice of the new World War
The clash of two systems of governance, as George Soros famously formulated it in his remarks to the World Economic Conference in May, seems to have reached a phase transition. Russian President Vladimir Putin has returned from last week’s summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference in Samarkand with a palpable sense of confidence and … Continue reading At the precipice of the new World War
CTAs: are US Treasuries about to rally?
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets. While the recent Treasury price fluctuations might have lulled many a trader to sleep, today's signal on 30-year T-Bond futures should snap … Continue reading CTAs: are US Treasuries about to rally?
Bitcoin and the problem of uncertainty
On Friday, 15 May I posted an impromptu analysis warning about the imminent price correction or reversal for Bitcoin. The article I published on ZeroHedge got some 7,300 reads and 24 comments. Chart analysis: not rocket science - but still scoffed at as superstition by the learned expert class. Although the analysis could not have … Continue reading Bitcoin and the problem of uncertainty
I-System Trend Following and the recent oil price events
This week’s oil price tremors have again validated the idea that understanding Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies "can provide a strong edge in today's highly systematized markets," (Nomura) and that "CTAs have long been key in understanding price action in commodities” (Rabobank). As a rule, CTAs rely on systematic trend following strategies. Even Paul Tudor … Continue reading I-System Trend Following and the recent oil price events
I-System and COMEX Copper trading
Copper market is an important indicator of the overall economic activity. Given the pervasive uncertainty over the last 12 months, the price of Copper has staged two major trend reversals – never a good environment for trend followers. Nonetheless, with the last two months’ rally, I-System strategies have again proven their worth. Performance of the … Continue reading I-System and COMEX Copper trading
I-System Trend Following 