At the end of December 2022, we’ve tracked the Major Markets portfolio for full three years and over that time it has performed very well, entirely fulfilling its objective of generating positive returns, uncorrelated with traditional asset classes. This document offers a visual performance summary of the portfolio and of the 190 I-System strategies that … Continue reading Major Markets portfolio – 3 year performance review
I hate trading!
Investment management is not about gambling but about quality of life! For someone who's spent the past 26 years as a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager, it might come as a surprise that I actually mean it when I say that I hate trading. I explained why I fell out of love … Continue reading I hate trading!
Trading on Technical Analysis – Bitcoin again…
Technical Analysis, deemed as voodoo superstition by many - perhaps most - investment professionals, can be extremely useful to traders, not so much as means of prediction as means to identify trades with positive risk-to-reward attributes. In the past, I identified valid trading signals for Bitcoin, based entirely on TA: 14 May 2021: "Bitcoin reversal? … Continue reading Trading on Technical Analysis – Bitcoin again…
The miracle of trend following
With all that’s going on in the world, worrying about your investment portfolio may seem like a distraction. Over the last few years the issues of politics, public health and war took the spotlight. Still however, managing our savings and safeguarding their purchasing power must remain a central concern; as Doug Casey put it in … Continue reading The miracle of trend following
Yen seems poised for more punishment
Two weeks ago I posted the article, "Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come," looking at the monetary shenanigans of BOJ's monetary policy which has doomed Japan to stagflation with a potentially hyperinflationary finale. Today I wanted to turn readers' attention to the technical analysis of yen's exchange rate. In spite of the BOJ's … Continue reading Yen seems poised for more punishment
Inflation is here to stay
Inflation expectations in the US have tapared off since May, but inflation genie won't be put back into the bottle easily. The chart above shows University of Michigan Inflation Expectations. While it's soared from 2021, it peaked in April and May 2022 and started to come down since then. But let's take a slightly longer … Continue reading Inflation is here to stay
Italian elections: beginning of the end for the EU?
Italians voted in parliamentary elections yesterday. The exit polls released by the national broadcaster Rai indicate that the Brothers of Italy party led by Giorgia Meloni won the clear majority (22.5%-26.5% of the vote). Meloni is set to become Italy's next prime minister and form the new cabinet. Meloni's populist leanings are almost identical to those of … Continue reading Italian elections: beginning of the end for the EU?
Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
The accelerating collapse of Japanese economy will foreshadow the unravelling of the European, British and ultimately even American crises. It is time to pay attention as the crisis presents major risks – but also opportunities. Things were discernible long ago… Way back in March of 2010 I published an article titled, “Japan: the Harbinger of … Continue reading Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
At the precipice of the new World War
The clash of two systems of governance, as George Soros famously formulated it in his remarks to the World Economic Conference in May, seems to have reached a phase transition. Russian President Vladimir Putin has returned from last week’s summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference in Samarkand with a palpable sense of confidence and … Continue reading At the precipice of the new World War
Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others closely watch Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds’ activities. As Nomura’s analysts found, “understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” Given that they collectively move over $300 billion in assets (plus leverage) and at times act in concert, their trade flows can trigger … Continue reading Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.