We're in a new game, requiring new thinking, versatility and resilience. Navigating the markets has become increasingly difficult and rife with risk. We should recognize however, that even in the best of times, investors have a strong tendency to underperform market benchmarks. Over a 20-year period from 1988 through 2007, the S&P 500 returned 11.81% annually. … Continue reading Investing: how not to lose
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Markets move in trends: the Cocoa edition
The core twin hypotheses behind I-System Trend Following and this newsletter are that, Market trends are far and away the most potent drivers of investment performance, and that Systematic trend following is the most reliable way to capture value from trends. But as I mentioned before, getting the best long-term results out of systematic trend … Continue reading Markets move in trends: the Cocoa edition
Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
On the morning of 12 January 2024, the United States and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes against some 60 Houthi (Ansar Allah) targets across Yemen in an attempt to check their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In spite of claiming … Continue reading Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
Cocoa “mayhem” and trend following
Few investors pay attention to cocoa prices, but starting in June, cocoa has been in the news quite a bit. The reason: cocoa prices nearly doubled over the past 12 months. The higher they rose, the more they caught the attention of traders and the inevitable expert commentariat.. Here we have another confirmation that the … Continue reading Cocoa “mayhem” and trend following
Talking finance and trend following with 2 vikings
Last week I had the pleasure of joining "2 Vikings" for a podcast interview. The 2 Vikings are Frank Nilsen and Stian Nicolaysen, two Norwegian podcasters and successful entrepreneurs (Frank was a top 10 podcast producer on iTunes). The unusual aspect of our long conversation (it had to be broken into two parts) was that our discussion converged … Continue reading Talking finance and trend following with 2 vikings
Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
It has long been my contention that in securities markets, prices lead and narratives follow, as I summed up in this 2016 article: "Market facts vs. market narratives." Yesterday we had another case in point: the price of Crude Oil rallied and the media rushed a slew of articles and commentary explaining the move. ZeroHedge … Continue reading Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
Mean Reversion or Trend Following?
All investment strategies fall in one of these two categories. Which one's better? Surprise: it's trend following. In his most recent podcast, Joris Bastien, founder and CEO of Quantraxia rightly summed up the universe of investment strategies: "... however you look at it, investment strategies - quantitative or not - fall into two broad categories: … Continue reading Mean Reversion or Trend Following?
Italy crumbling
Throughout 2023, the yields on Italian 10-year Treasury Bonds have been trading at above 4%. Only last summer, they were 0.6%. When they began approaching 4% last December, the financial markets thought that level would trigger a panic. Fast forward nine months and we're still above that panic level. Currently the yields are just over … Continue reading Italy crumbling
Global Britain is circling the drain
Decades of steady economic and social decay... at what point can we call this a failed system? Earlier this month I visited the UK to speak at the Better Way Conference in the beautiful city of Bath, alongside eminent thought delinquents like Dr. Pierre Kory, Neil Olver, Prof. Dolores Cahill, Andrew Bridgen, Melissa Ciummei, Vera Sharav, Dr. Mattias Desmet and many … Continue reading Global Britain is circling the drain
The center cannot hold…
Globalist cabal may be up against a conspiracy of saboteurs. The events could accelerate dramatically in the coming days... Market consequences could be tremendous. Update (17 May 2023): I concluded yesterday's article (16 May) as follows: "I believe that in the near future we might see an abrupt change in Ukraine, perhaps a coup against … Continue reading The center cannot hold…
I-System Trend Following 