Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
At market close on 15 December, the Tesla’s market cap ($606.5 billion) surpassed that of Toyota, General Motors, Daimler, VolksWagen, BMW, Honda and Ford combined ($578.2 billion)! This underscores yet again the power of market trends and the momentum investing strategy. Let’s have a brief look at the way this shaped up. While the S&P … Continue reading Tesla and the power of momentum investing
Warren Buffett warned that for a debtor nation, inflation was the economic equivalent of the hydrogen bomb. Runaway inflations tend to emerge when an economy’s debt burden becomes unsustainable usually as a consequence of too much government spending and too much war. For a while now, nearly all categories of debt in the U.S. economy … Continue reading The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…Arthur Burns While the the ultimate resolution of the current economic imbalances will have very significant long-term consequences, it also has important shorter-term implications for investors. Namely, the fear of banking collapse has driven … Continue reading About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!
One of the frequently voiced misgivings about systematic trading strategies usually goes like this: “yes, but your model can’t know if tomorrow XYZ happens and market prices go haywire…” The immediate aftermath of U.S. elections saw fairly volatile market reactions particularly in equities and treasuries. Both had previously turned slightly bearish but on November 4, … Continue reading I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events
This week’s oil price tremors have again validated the idea that understanding Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies "can provide a strong edge in today's highly systematized markets," (Nomura) and that "CTAs have long been key in understanding price action in commodities” (Rabobank). As a rule, CTAs rely on systematic trend following strategies. Even Paul Tudor … Continue reading I-System Trend Following and the recent oil price events
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human psychology. … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone...Arthur Burns (Federal Reserve Chairman and Milton Friedman's economics professor) Since the last financial crisis, Renegade Inc. has produced a long series of documentary programs and interviews with leading economists and thinkers like Richard … Continue reading The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!