War drive is coming from London

The foregoing is part of this morning’s TrendCompass newsletter:

The Biden Administration made a sharp policy turn yesterday by announcing that it would set 8,500 US Troops on high alert for possible future deployment to Eastern Europe. The measure is almost meaningless, but it favors further escalation of conflict which could ultimately galvanize a much more substantial confrontation in the future. This turn happened after President Biden had a call with UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Recall, it was Johnson who issued this warning last November: “We hope that our friends [in Europe] may recognize that a choice is shortly coming between mainlining ever more Russian hydrocarbons in giant new pipelines and sticking up for Ukraine and championing the cause of peace and stability.” That was only a day after the outgoing head of the UK Chief of Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter declared that the UK military would have to be ready for war with Russia. 

About that same time Britain sent troops and equipment to Poland and announced that the UK would enhance its permanent presence of troops and tanks in Germany. That all happened on the back of a minor incident with a group of Middle Eastern migrants who sought to force their way across the Belarus border with Poland and predated Russia’s “ultimatum” to the US and NATO by more than a month. Nonetheless, the tensions have only escalated since then.

It wasn’t unpredictable

In August 2020 I published an article on my personal blog titled, Covid 19: the Banking Cartel is Driving the Agenda. In it I wrote that the empire builders “have anticipated our pushback [against the authoritarian Covid policies] and have surely planned diversions to misdirect our grievances… One of the greatest means of diversion are wars. We must therefore guard against believing that our enemies are the Russians, the Chinese or whomever the logic of divide-and-rule would pit us against. When our governments tell us that we face a grave threat from another nation, send troops to its borders or warships near its shores, we must demand they stand down. We must also guard against demonization of other nations and their leaders because they frequently lead to military escalation (think Saddam Hussein, Moammar Ghaddafi, Bashar al Assad…)”

All these developments have been as predictable because they are predictable. Not if you follow the daily media reporting that’s almost invariably biased, context-free and hysteria-inducing, but through a careful analysis of historical patterns: in each case, from the first Crimean war, the US Civil War in the 1860s, the Boer Wars and both of last century’s World Wars, the war drive unmistakably and always came from London. Of course, Boris Johnson is a mere puppet here; the real power structure is above him, operates in secret and gives no account to the British people.

After today’s changes your exposure should be as follows:

And below is the table view:

In today’s highly systematized markets and distorted valuations, quality systematic trend following strategies provide the most reliable way to navigate the unpredictable market changes.