Inflation expectations in the US have tapared off since May, but inflation genie won't be put back into the bottle easily. The chart above shows University of Michigan Inflation Expectations. While it's soared from 2021, it peaked in April and May 2022 and started to come down since then. But let's take a slightly longer … Continue reading Inflation is here to stay
The accelerating collapse of Japanese economy will foreshadow the unravelling of the European, British and ultimately even American crises. It is time to pay attention as the crisis presents major risks – but also opportunities. Things were discernible long ago… Way back in March of 2010 I published an article titled, “Japan: the Harbinger of … Continue reading Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets and as such kept under a microscope by an army of analysts worldwide. Recently a relatively minor drop in yields left the … Continue reading Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.
Warren Buffett warned that for a debtor nation, inflation was the economic equivalent of the hydrogen bomb. Runaway inflations tend to emerge when an economy’s debt burden becomes unsustainable usually as a consequence of too much government spending and too much war. For a while now, nearly all categories of debt in the U.S. economy … Continue reading The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…Arthur Burns While the the ultimate resolution of the current economic imbalances will have very significant long-term consequences, it also has important shorter-term implications for investors. Namely, the fear of banking collapse has driven … Continue reading About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human psychology. … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone...Arthur Burns (Federal Reserve Chairman and Milton Friedman's economics professor) Since the last financial crisis, Renegade Inc. has produced a long series of documentary programs and interviews with leading economists and thinkers like Richard … Continue reading The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?