Investment management is not about gambling but about quality of life! For someone who's spent the past 26 years as a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager, it might come as a surprise that I actually mean it when I say that I hate trading. I explained why I fell out of love … Continue reading I hate trading!
Technical Analysis, deemed as voodoo superstition by many - perhaps most - investment professionals, can be extremely useful to traders, not so much as means of prediction as means to identify trades with positive risk-to-reward attributes. In the past, I identified valid trading signals for Bitcoin, based entirely on TA: 14 May 2021: "Bitcoin reversal? … Continue reading Trading on Technical Analysis – Bitcoin again…
With all that’s going on in the world, worrying about your investment portfolio may seem like a distraction. Over the last few years the issues of politics, public health and war took the spotlight. Still however, managing our savings and safeguarding their purchasing power must remain a central concern; as Doug Casey put it in … Continue reading The miracle of trend following
Two weeks ago I posted the article, "Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come," looking at the monetary shenanigans of BOJ's monetary policy which has doomed Japan to stagflation with a potentially hyperinflationary finale. Today I wanted to turn readers' attention to the technical analysis of yen's exchange rate. In spite of the BOJ's … Continue reading Yen seems poised for more punishment
The accelerating collapse of Japanese economy will foreshadow the unravelling of the European, British and ultimately even American crises. It is time to pay attention as the crisis presents major risks – but also opportunities. Things were discernible long ago… Way back in March of 2010 I published an article titled, “Japan: the Harbinger of … Continue reading Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others closely watch Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds’ activities. As Nomura’s analysts found, “understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” Given that they collectively move over $300 billion in assets (plus leverage) and at times act in concert, their trade flows can trigger … Continue reading Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
Food production and the fossil fuel industries are not the only ones on the globalists' chopping block. Last weekend I was invited to a zoom call with the German firebrand MEP Christine Anderson who gave us a brief report about the recent vote in the EU parliament to extend the Covid pass requirement for another year. The … Continue reading A small short? The coming collapse of the air travel industry
Trend following is to investing as Arabic numerals are to mathematics. The S&P 500 is now nearly 22% below peak. Treasury bonds of most western governments have begun to give way at an accelerating rate and all this is taking place against the backdrop rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and poor overall economic performance. At … Continue reading As markets crash, trend followers excel again
Stock investors tend to obsess about stock picks, with desire to discover the new Apple, Google, Tesla or some such stock that could make all the difference. But even when they discover them, most investors never take full advantage of these discoveries. The reason is rooted in human psychology. It's what psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called "failure … Continue reading Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks
A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation