Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others closely watch Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds’ activities. As Nomura’s analysts found, “understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” Given that they collectively move over $300 billion in assets (plus leverage) and at times act in concert, their trade flows can trigger … Continue reading Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
Food production and the fossil fuel industries are not the only ones on the globalists' chopping block. Last weekend I was invited to a zoom call with the German firebrand MEP Christine Anderson who gave us a brief report about the recent vote in the EU parliament to extend the Covid pass requirement for another year. The … Continue reading A small short? The coming collapse of the air travel industry
Trend following is to investing as Arabic numerals are to mathematics. The S&P 500 is now nearly 22% below peak. Treasury bonds of most western governments have begun to give way at an accelerating rate and all this is taking place against the backdrop rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and poor overall economic performance. At … Continue reading As markets crash, trend followers excel again
Stock investors tend to obsess about stock picks, with desire to discover the new Apple, Google, Tesla or some such stock that could make all the difference. But even when they discover them, most investors never take full advantage of these discoveries. The reason is rooted in human psychology. It's what psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called "failure … Continue reading Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks
A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation
If you trade, trend following could prove your protector guardian through the coming market turbulence - do not fly blind. Over the past 10 weeks I-System trend following strategies generated $50 per barrel in profits from the oil price rise - $50,000 per Brent futures contract. Here's how. Following trends vs. trading the news Over … Continue reading Geopolitics, markets and trend following
For a chart analyst, the price of Gold has been looking like a "buy" for months now. On 29 December a number of our CTA strategies generated BUY signals on COMEX Gold and on the occasion, I published an analysis titled, "TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!" The case was simple, really: for some … Continue reading The cultural drag on the price of Gold
After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!