Market trends are the most potent driver of long-term investment performance

In my April report I suggested that effective trend following required discipline and a good deal of patience. In this report we discuss the strategy’s proper objective, which leads compellingly to the conclusion articulated in this article's title. We are after outsized, long-term windfalls Many individual traders obsess over short term gains or even day … Continue reading Market trends are the most potent driver of long-term investment performance

Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…

In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…

Trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty

Spending time looking at economic data releases or focusing on corporate earnings is a colossal waste of timeDavid Zervos, MD, Jefferies Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of time – if not something worse. In polite society, this is not a popular claim, … Continue reading Trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty

Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?

In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?