Articles

Everything bubble’s end game

The S&P 500 closed 2021 at a new all-time high, indicating that the ongoing central bank monetary experiment is nowhere near winding down: For years now, we’ve seen many compelling analyses, usually based on valuation issues or macroeconomic risks, predicting an imminent crash and explain why the bull market just could not continue for long. … Continue reading Everything bubble’s end game

TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!

Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!

Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…

Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…

Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…

From Monday's TrendCompass report: On 23 October, Yale economics professor, Robert Schiller gave a speech to a gathering of investors in Los Angeles. "I see bubbles everywhere...," said the nobel laureate and author of "Irrational Exuberance." Dr. Schiller famously predicted the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the crash of the housing market in 2007, so … Continue reading Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…

The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis

On August 15, 2021 when the Taliban took over Kabul, I posted an analysis in which I noted that the event would prove to have very far-reaching consequences and that it would be the United Kingdom which might sustain the greatest setback from it (a 14-min video report is here). This was confirmed by an … Continue reading The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis

My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire

Former Fed Chairman Arthur Burns said that, “A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone.” So far as large affairs go, the recent events in Afghanistan could hardly be any larger. On Sunday, 15 August Taliban fighters entered Kabul unopposed and … Continue reading Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire