Articles

As markets crash, trend followers excel again

Trend following is to investing as Arabic numerals are to mathematics. The S&P 500 is now nearly 22% below peak. Treasury bonds of most western governments have begun to give way at an accelerating rate and all this is taking place against the backdrop rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and poor overall economic performance. At … Continue reading As markets crash, trend followers excel again

Eurasian integration: is it lights out for high priests of Davos?

Last August, when the Taliban walked into Kabul and took over Afghanistan almost unopposed, I wrote that this might have been the empire's mortal wound and that we would see a very extensive redrawing of global alliances and security architecture. In my 17 September TrendCompass report, I wrote: "Nations that have held onto some degree of sovereignty … Continue reading Eurasian integration: is it lights out for high priests of Davos?

Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks

Stock investors tend to obsess about stock picks, with desire to discover the new Apple, Google, Tesla or some such stock that could make all the difference. But even when they discover them, most investors never take full advantage of these discoveries. The reason is rooted in human psychology. It's what psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called "failure … Continue reading Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks

Truth and trend following in speculation

A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation

Geopolitics, markets and trend following

If you trade, trend following could prove your protector guardian through the coming market turbulence - do not fly blind. Over the past 10 weeks I-System trend following strategies generated $50 per barrel in profits from the oil price rise - $50,000 per Brent futures contract. Here's how. Following trends vs. trading the news Over … Continue reading Geopolitics, markets and trend following

Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle

In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle

Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?

After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?

Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?

On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?