Inflation expectations in the US have tapared off since May, but inflation genie won't be put back into the bottle easily. The chart above shows University of Michigan Inflation Expectations. While it's soared from 2021, it peaked in April and May 2022 and started to come down since then. But let's take a slightly longer … Continue reading Inflation is here to stay
Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio
Warren Buffett warned that for a debtor nation, inflation was the economic equivalent of the hydrogen bomb. Runaway inflations tend to emerge when an economy’s debt burden becomes unsustainable usually as a consequence of too much government spending and too much war. For a while now, nearly all categories of debt in the U.S. economy … Continue reading The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio
About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…Arthur Burns While the the ultimate resolution of the current economic imbalances will have very significant long-term consequences, it also has important shorter-term implications for investors. Namely, the fear of banking collapse has driven … Continue reading About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!
The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?
A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone...Arthur Burns (Federal Reserve Chairman and Milton Friedman's economics professor) Since the last financial crisis, Renegade Inc. has produced a long series of documentary programs and interviews with leading economists and thinkers like Richard … Continue reading The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?
Inflation: we passed the phase transition
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!
Inflation: lessons from last empire’s collapse
In spite of the obvious differences betewen the Soviet and U.S. economies there are disconcerting parallels between the systemic roots of their respective crises (USSR in 1980s and USA today).USSR's stalling GDP growth, growing 'defence' budget and balooning budget deficits ultimately led to currency debasement and high inflation. There's every likelihood that U.S. dollar will … Continue reading Inflation: lessons from last empire’s collapse
I-System Trend Following 