Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire

Former Fed Chairman Arthur Burns said that, “A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone.” So far as large affairs go, the recent events in Afghanistan could hardly be any larger. On Sunday, 15 August Taliban fighters entered Kabul unopposed and … Continue reading Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire

Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case

One of the greatest worries for investors and savers – and also everyone living on fixed income – is inflation, which could accelerate to levels not seen since the 1970s. One of the asset classes that ofer effective protection from inflation are precious metals. Over the recent months, as many commodities have rallied strongly (Oats, … Continue reading Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case

The coming energy crisis – the case of dwindling Saudi oil reserves (video + transcript)

Last week the Visual Capitalist published another one of their infographics, this time about the oil reserves of different nations. As usual, they make nice-looking graphics, but this document yet again perpetuates the seemingly immortal myth about the magical, inexhaustible Saudi oil reserves which, says the Visual Capitalist, amount to 291 billion barrels. They got … Continue reading The coming energy crisis – the case of dwindling Saudi oil reserves (video + transcript)

Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?

Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?

I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events

One of the frequently voiced misgivings about systematic trading strategies usually goes like this: “yes, but your model can’t know if tomorrow XYZ happens and market prices go haywire…” The immediate aftermath of U.S. elections saw fairly volatile market reactions particularly in equities and treasuries. Both had previously turned slightly bearish but on November 4, … Continue reading I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events

CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?

One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?

I-System and the 2020 oil price roller-coaster…

Oil price has had a wild ride this year, crashing nearly 80% from January through April. I-System strategies navigated the event remarkably well, capturing more than $42/bbl in profits. At the time, I summarized this in my article, “With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!” But trend following does less well during trend reversals … Continue reading I-System and the 2020 oil price roller-coaster…