The core twin hypotheses behind I-System Trend Following and this newsletter are that, Market trends are far and away the most potent drivers of investment performance, and that Systematic trend following is the most reliable way to capture value from trends. But as I mentioned before, getting the best long-term results out of systematic trend … Continue reading Markets move in trends: the Cocoa edition
Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
On the morning of 12 January 2024, the United States and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes against some 60 Houthi (Ansar Allah) targets across Yemen in an attempt to check their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In spite of claiming … Continue reading Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
Hurricane science for investors and traders
As tropical storm Elsa powers toward Florida, a new hurricane season is upon us. Hurricanes are one of the starkest cases of nature’s elements having a direct impact on financial and commodities markets. If a storm hits the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico with sufficient strength, it can cause … Continue reading Hurricane science for investors and traders
The coming energy crisis – the case of dwindling Saudi oil reserves (video + transcript)
Last week the Visual Capitalist published another one of their infographics, this time about the oil reserves of different nations. As usual, they make nice-looking graphics, but this document yet again perpetuates the seemingly immortal myth about the magical, inexhaustible Saudi oil reserves which, says the Visual Capitalist, amount to 291 billion barrels. They got … Continue reading The coming energy crisis – the case of dwindling Saudi oil reserves (video + transcript)
Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
The most fundamental determining fact in connection with organization is the meeting of uncertainty. The responsible decisions in organized economic life are price decisions; others can be reduced to routine Frank Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of … Continue reading Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
Why hedging is key!
Lately I got into arguments about the proper role of hedging with some individuslas who, I thought, should know better. Their belief, essentially, is that operative businesses - mining firms, oil & gas producers, airlines... - should always hedge their price exposure and focus on generating value on their operations. In other words, ignore the … Continue reading Why hedging is key!
I-System Trend Following 