Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
Inflation: we passed the phase transition
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!
Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
Why hedging is key!
Lately I got into arguments about the proper role of hedging with some individuslas who, I thought, should know better. Their belief, essentially, is that operative businesses - mining firms, oil & gas producers, airlines... - should always hedge their price exposure and focus on generating value on their operations. In other words, ignore the … Continue reading Why hedging is key!