While most market experts completely failed to predict this year’s  collapse in interest rates (see the chart below), we traded the event profitably. In this article I summarize the the hows and the whys of our performance with I-System strategies.
How did we know to short US T-Notes starting in Q4 2017, then reverse and go long in November of 2018? Did we know interest rates would first rise, then collapse at the fastest rate in 50 years? Are we so brilliant at forecasting? Did we have insider information? The answer is, no.
We did not know what would happen – but profited from the events anyway. Here’s how:
We knew to trade as we did because we rely on intelligent trend following strategies formulated using the I-System.
The following chart illustrates the performance of I-System strategies on US 10-year Treasury Note, interposing the price fluctuations, our risk exposure and recent performance:
US Treasuries have been difficult to trade as prices peaked in mid-2016 with several trend reversals and much sideways consolidations in between. Consequently, navigating the price fluctuations hasn’t been easy. However, as sustained price trends emerged from late 2017 until today (first down, then up), adhering to a set of trend folowing strategies generated strong trading gains and rose to new performance peaks. The sequence of events shown in the above chart was similar in other markets we traded and the performance of our strategies is illustrated below:
This performance is remarkable because it is entirely driven by a set of quantitative trading strategies. We strictly did not need to know anything about the economic conditions affecting US, British or German treasuries and interest rates, about central bank and government policies, GDP, employment, inflation, or any other factor. We simply navigated through the uncertainty through disciplined adherence to a set of well-formulated trend following strategies.
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