Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others closely watch Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds’ activities. As Nomura’s analysts found, “understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” Given that they collectively move over $300 billion in assets (plus leverage) and at times act in concert, their trade flows can trigger … Continue reading Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation
After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
From Monday's TrendCompass report: On 23 October, Yale economics professor, Robert Schiller gave a speech to a gathering of investors in Los Angeles. "I see bubbles everywhere...," said the nobel laureate and author of "Irrational Exuberance." Dr. Schiller famously predicted the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the crash of the housing market in 2007, so … Continue reading Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…
As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
Tens of millions of individual investors worldwide took the step of setting up their own brokerage accounts to actively manage their portfolios. Unfortunately, most of them lose money: an 11-year study published by the UK regulator FCA found that 82% of them lose money. The data published by many of the retail brokers corroborate this. … Continue reading Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!
One of the greatest worries for investors and savers – and also everyone living on fixed income – is inflation, which could accelerate to levels not seen since the 1970s. One of the asset classes that ofer effective protection from inflation are precious metals. Over the recent months, as many commodities have rallied strongly (Oats, … Continue reading Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets and as such kept under a microscope by an army of analysts worldwide. Recently a relatively minor drop in yields left the … Continue reading Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.