Bitcoin has been one of the favorite objects of trading speculation in the recent years: it's vaulted over six million percent with compound annual return of more than 200% every year since 2009 (h/t Raoul Pal). https://youtu.be/Qn-7oFKXsE8 Even just in the last 12 months, it has gone up from under $10,000 to over $63,000. However, … Continue reading Bitcoin reversal? Three technical warning signs!
After much thought and preparations I am delighted to announce the launch of MARKETS, TRENDS and PROFITS channel on YouTube. The mission behind I-System Trend Following and this channel is to explore financial markets and the secrets of investing profitably -FOR THE LONG TERM. What we’ll cover here is not commonly taught in university courses … Continue reading Money management: strategy vs. gimmicks and why it matters
Our Major Markets portfolio consists of 180 trend following strategies (long, medium and short cycle trends) in 15 of the most important markets for global investors. Daily TrendCompass reports convey the directional exposure and trading signals for all these strategies. Here we'll look at the performance of these signals from the start of 2020 through … Continue reading TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review
Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
One of the frequently voiced misgivings about systematic trading strategies usually goes like this: “yes, but your model can’t know if tomorrow XYZ happens and market prices go haywire…” The immediate aftermath of U.S. elections saw fairly volatile market reactions particularly in equities and treasuries. Both had previously turned slightly bearish but on November 4, … Continue reading I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!
This is not a hollow boast. While I-System has generated superb performance over the years, the key reason for this claim reflects a higher-order quality of the model: I-System has the potential to entirely transcend uncertainty and largely replace the human factor in asset management in a broad variety of investment strategies including portfolio allocation, … Continue reading I-System: probably the best trend following model ever built
Over the past few trading sessions, I-System strategies have gradually reversed from long to short positions on treasury futures (long gilt, German bund, US 30-yr T-Bond), with the exception of the 10-year T-Note where our positioning remains net long. This could be a significant development if we are looking at the beginning of a major … Continue reading Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?
Oil price has had a wild ride this year, crashing nearly 80% from January through April. I-System strategies navigated the event remarkably well, capturing more than $42/bbl in profits. At the time, I summarized this in my article, “With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!” But trend following does less well during trend reversals … Continue reading I-System and the 2020 oil price roller-coaster…