Tens of millions of individual investors worldwide took the step of setting up their own brokerage accounts to actively manage their portfolios. Unfortunately, most of them lose money: an 11-year study published by the UK regulator FCA found that 82% of them lose money. The data published by many of the retail brokers corroborate this. … Continue reading Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!
One of the greatest worries for investors and savers – and also everyone living on fixed income – is inflation, which could accelerate to levels not seen since the 1970s. One of the asset classes that ofer effective protection from inflation are precious metals. Over the recent months, as many commodities have rallied strongly (Oats, … Continue reading Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets and as such kept under a microscope by an army of analysts worldwide. Recently a relatively minor drop in yields left the … Continue reading Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.
Bitcoin has been one of the favorite objects of trading speculation in the recent years: it's vaulted over six million percent with compound annual return of more than 200% every year since 2009 (h/t Raoul Pal). https://youtu.be/Qn-7oFKXsE8 Even just in the last 12 months, it has gone up from under $10,000 to over $63,000. However, … Continue reading Bitcoin reversal? Three technical warning signs!
After much thought and preparations I am delighted to announce the launch of MARKETS, TRENDS and PROFITS channel on YouTube. The mission behind I-System Trend Following and this channel is to explore financial markets and the secrets of investing profitably -FOR THE LONG TERM. What we’ll cover here is not commonly taught in university courses … Continue reading Money management: strategy vs. gimmicks and why it matters
Our Major Markets portfolio consists of 180 trend following strategies (long, medium and short cycle trends) in 15 of the most important markets for global investors. Daily TrendCompass reports convey the directional exposure and trading signals for all these strategies. Here we'll look at the performance of these signals from the start of 2020 through … Continue reading TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review
Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
One of the frequently voiced misgivings about systematic trading strategies usually goes like this: “yes, but your model can’t know if tomorrow XYZ happens and market prices go haywire…” The immediate aftermath of U.S. elections saw fairly volatile market reactions particularly in equities and treasuries. Both had previously turned slightly bearish but on November 4, … Continue reading I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!