TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review

Our Major Markets portfolio consists of 180 trend following strategies (long, medium and short cycle trends) in 15 of the most important markets for global investors. Daily TrendCompass reports convey the directional exposure and trading signals for all these strategies. Here we'll look at the performance of these signals from the start of 2020 through … Continue reading TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review

CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?

One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?

How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund

For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human psychology. … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund

Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?

Over the past few trading sessions, I-System strategies have gradually reversed from long to short positions on treasury futures (long gilt, German bund, US 30-yr T-Bond), with the exception of the 10-year T-Note where our positioning remains net long. This could be a significant development if we are looking at the beginning of a major … Continue reading Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?

I-System and COMEX Copper trading

Copper market is an important indicator of the overall economic activity. Given the pervasive uncertainty over the last 12 months, the price of Copper has staged two major trend reversals – never a good environment for trend followers. Nonetheless, with the last two months’ rally, I-System strategies have again proven their worth. Performance of the … Continue reading I-System and COMEX Copper trading

Trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty

The most fundamental determining fact in connection with organization is the meeting of uncertainty. The responsible decisions in organized economic life are price decisions; others can be reduced to routineFrank Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of time … Continue reading Trend following is the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty

Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?

In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?

With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!

Recent weeks brought severe price shocks in many markets. Their timing and severity took most participants by surprise. In these circumstances, I-System strategies performed superbly well. As this post shows, a few strategies sustained negative results, but this is to be expected. This is why, rather than formulating a trading strategy, we built a stable … Continue reading With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!

How we knew yields would collapse?

While most market experts completely failed to predict this year’s [2019] collapse in interest rates (see the chart below), we traded the event profitably. In this article I summarize the the hows and the whys of our performance with I-System strategies. How did we know to short US T-Notes starting in Q4 2017, then reverse … Continue reading How we knew yields would collapse?