As markets crash, trend followers excel again

Trend following is to investing as Arabic numerals are to mathematics. The S&P 500 is now nearly 22% below peak. Treasury bonds of most western governments have begun to give way at an accelerating rate and all this is taking place against the backdrop rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and poor overall economic performance. At … Continue reading As markets crash, trend followers excel again

Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks

Stock investors tend to obsess about stock picks, with desire to discover the new Apple, Google, Tesla or some such stock that could make all the difference. But even when they discover them, most investors never take full advantage of these discoveries. The reason is rooted in human psychology. It's what psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called "failure … Continue reading Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks

Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle

In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle

Everything bubble’s end game

The S&P 500 closed 2021 at a new all-time high, indicating that the ongoing central bank monetary experiment is nowhere near winding down: For years now, we’ve seen many compelling analyses, usually based on valuation issues or macroeconomic risks, predicting an imminent crash and explain why the bull market just could not continue for long. … Continue reading Everything bubble’s end game

Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…

Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…

My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!

Tens of millions of individual investors worldwide took the step of setting up their own brokerage accounts to actively manage their portfolios. Unfortunately, most of them lose money: an 11-year study published by the UK regulator FCA found that 82% of them lose money. The data published by many of the retail brokers corroborate this. … Continue reading Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!

Market trends: far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance

More than a century of empirical data covering 18 of the world’s largest stock markets show beyond a shadow of doubt that market trends are the most powerful drivers of investment performance. The foundations of a successful long-term investment management practice should rest on four pillars: TruthStrategyDisciplinePatience Truth is what we try to uncover by … Continue reading Market trends: far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance

My interview with Michael Covel on the “Trend Following Radio” podcast

I recently gave an interview to Michael Covel of "Trend Following Radio" podcast which I found thoroughly enjoyable and stimulating. Over the years I've read much of Michael's articles, interviews and one of his books so I already knew we were very much on the same wavelength when it came to investment trading, but our … Continue reading My interview with Michael Covel on the “Trend Following Radio” podcast

Money management: strategy vs. gimmicks and why it matters

After much thought and preparations I am delighted to announce the launch of MARKETS, TRENDS and PROFITS channel on YouTube. The mission behind I-System Trend Following and this channel is to explore financial markets and the secrets of investing profitably -FOR THE LONG TERM. What we’ll cover here is not commonly taught in university courses … Continue reading Money management: strategy vs. gimmicks and why it matters