Over the last two decades, tens of millions of people opted to set up their own brokerage accounts and manage their portfolios themselves. The trouble is that as many as 3 out of 4 of them lose money. According to the brokers, most individual investors do 'message board' trading - quick in-and-out of most popular … Continue reading Last day to grab the “Trend Following Bible” for free (kindle version)
Over the last two decades, tens of millions of people have opted to open brokerage accounts and manage their own investment portfolios. However, according to those brokerage's figures, as many as 76% of them lose money. The reason is that they trade either with flawed strategies or no strategy at all. Particularly today, at the … Continue reading Invest profitably for the long-term, with confidence and peace of mind!
At market close on 15 December, the Tesla’s market cap ($606.5 billion) surpassed that of Toyota, General Motors, Daimler, VolksWagen, BMW, Honda and Ford combined ($578.2 billion)! This underscores yet again the power of market trends and the momentum investing strategy. Let’s have a brief look at the way this shaped up. While the S&P … Continue reading Tesla and the power of momentum investing
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human psychology. … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
During the 1970s inflation, M2 money supply growth never surpassed 14% per annum. This year we just blew past 23%. It is time to start paying attention!
This is not a hollow boast. While I-System has generated superb performance over the years, the key reason for this claim reflects a higher-order quality of the model: I-System has the potential to entirely transcend uncertainty and largely replace the human factor in asset management in a broad variety of investment strategies including portfolio allocation, … Continue reading I-System: probably the best trend following model ever built
In spite of the obvious differences betewen the Soviet and U.S. economies there are disconcerting parallels between the systemic roots of their respective crises (USSR in 1980s and USA today).USSR's stalling GDP growth, growing 'defence' budget and balooning budget deficits ultimately led to currency debasement and high inflation. There's every likelihood that U.S. dollar will … Continue reading Inflation: lessons from last empire’s collapse
Last few years saw something of a gold rush into quantitative investment strategies. Their appeal is obvious as a way to put discipline into trading and take the emotion and stress out. Quantitative strategies might even help improve performance. Here’s how Black Rock President Rob Kapito articulated the industry hopes: “As people get the data … Continue reading Sack your quant!
In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?