In my April report I suggested that effective trend following required discipline and a good deal of patience. In this report we discuss the strategy’s proper objective, which leads compellingly to the conclusion articulated in this article's title. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crgudbifQNY We are after outsized, long-term windfalls Many individual traders obsess over short term gains or even … Continue reading Market trends are the most powerful drivers of long-term investment performance
Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
The most fundamental determining fact in connection with organization is the meeting of uncertainty. The responsible decisions in organized economic life are price decisions; others can be reduced to routine Frank Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of … Continue reading Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?
In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?
Why hedging is key!
Lately I got into arguments about the proper role of hedging with some individuslas who, I thought, should know better. Their belief, essentially, is that operative businesses - mining firms, oil & gas producers, airlines... - should always hedge their price exposure and focus on generating value on their operations. In other words, ignore the … Continue reading Why hedging is key!
With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!
Recent weeks brought severe price shocks in many markets. Their timing and severity took most participants by surprise. In these circumstances, I-System strategies performed superbly well. As this post shows, a few strategies sustained negative results, but this is to be expected. This is why, rather than formulating a trading strategy, we built a stable … Continue reading With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!
I-System Trend Following 