Inflation expectations in the US have tapared off since May, but inflation genie won't be put back into the bottle easily. The chart above shows University of Michigan Inflation Expectations. While it's soared from 2021, it peaked in April and May 2022 and started to come down since then. But let's take a slightly longer … Continue reading Inflation is here to stay
The accelerating collapse of Japanese economy will foreshadow the unravelling of the European, British and ultimately even American crises. It is time to pay attention as the crisis presents major risks – but also opportunities. Things were discernible long ago… Way back in March of 2010 I published an article titled, “Japan: the Harbinger of … Continue reading Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
The S&P 500 closed 2021 at a new all-time high, indicating that the ongoing central bank monetary experiment is nowhere near winding down: For years now, we’ve seen many compelling analyses, usually based on valuation issues or macroeconomic risks, predicting an imminent crash and explain why the bull market just could not continue for long. … Continue reading Everything bubble’s end game
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
I recently gave an interview to Michael Covel of "Trend Following Radio" podcast which I found thoroughly enjoyable and stimulating. Over the years I've read much of Michael's articles, interviews and one of his books so I already knew we were very much on the same wavelength when it came to investment trading, but our … Continue reading My interview with Michael Covel on the “Trend Following Radio” podcast
After the 2008/9 financial crisis, managed futures funds emerged victorious from the rubble. As equity markets around the world collapsed and most hedge fund strategies sustained severe losses, the CTAs generated strong positive performance, because most of them rely on systematic trend following strategies, which means that they tend to perform well during bear markets. … Continue reading Trend following: why it fell from grace and why it will rise again
Warren Buffett warned that for a debtor nation, inflation was the economic equivalent of the hydrogen bomb. Runaway inflations tend to emerge when an economy’s debt burden becomes unsustainable usually as a consequence of too much government spending and too much war. For a while now, nearly all categories of debt in the U.S. economy … Continue reading The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio