The core twin hypotheses behind I-System Trend Following and this newsletter are that, Market trends are far and away the most potent drivers of investment performance, and that Systematic trend following is the most reliable way to capture value from trends. But as I mentioned before, getting the best long-term results out of systematic trend … Continue reading Markets move in trends: the Cocoa edition
Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
On the morning of 12 January 2024, the United States and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes against some 60 Houthi (Ansar Allah) targets across Yemen in an attempt to check their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In spite of claiming … Continue reading Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
It has long been my contention that in securities markets, prices lead and narratives follow, as I summed up in this 2016 article: "Market facts vs. market narratives." Yesterday we had another case in point: the price of Crude Oil rallied and the media rushed a slew of articles and commentary explaining the move. ZeroHedge … Continue reading Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
Major Markets portfolio – 3 year performance review
At the end of December 2022, we’ve tracked the Major Markets portfolio for full three years and over that time it has performed very well, entirely fulfilling its objective of generating positive returns, uncorrelated with traditional asset classes. This document offers a visual performance summary of the portfolio and of the 190 I-System strategies that … Continue reading Major Markets portfolio – 3 year performance review
I hate trading!
Investment management is not about gambling but about quality of life! For someone who's spent the past 26 years as a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager, it might come as a surprise that I actually mean it when I say that I hate trading. I explained why I fell out of love … Continue reading I hate trading!
Trading on Technical Analysis – Bitcoin again…
Technical Analysis, deemed as voodoo superstition by many - perhaps most - investment professionals, can be extremely useful to traders, not so much as means of prediction as means to identify trades with positive risk-to-reward attributes. In the past, I identified valid trading signals for Bitcoin, based entirely on TA: 14 May 2021: "Bitcoin reversal? … Continue reading Trading on Technical Analysis – Bitcoin again…
Yen seems poised for more punishment
Two weeks ago I posted the article, "Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come," looking at the monetary shenanigans of BOJ's monetary policy which has doomed Japan to stagflation with a potentially hyperinflationary finale. Today I wanted to turn readers' attention to the technical analysis of yen's exchange rate. In spite of the BOJ's … Continue reading Yen seems poised for more punishment
Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
The accelerating collapse of Japanese economy will foreshadow the unravelling of the European, British and ultimately even American crises. It is time to pay attention as the crisis presents major risks – but also opportunities. Things were discernible long ago… Way back in March of 2010 I published an article titled, “Japan: the Harbinger of … Continue reading Japan: the harbinger of bad things to come…
Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others closely watch Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds’ activities. As Nomura’s analysts found, “understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” Given that they collectively move over $300 billion in assets (plus leverage) and at times act in concert, their trade flows can trigger … Continue reading Are CTAs boosting the markets? Not so fast.
As markets crash, trend followers excel again
Trend following is to investing as Arabic numerals are to mathematics. The S&P 500 is now nearly 22% below peak. Treasury bonds of most western governments have begun to give way at an accelerating rate and all this is taking place against the backdrop rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and poor overall economic performance. At … Continue reading As markets crash, trend followers excel again
I-System Trend Following 