From Monday's TrendCompass report: On 23 October, Yale economics professor, Robert Schiller gave a speech to a gathering of investors in Los Angeles. "I see bubbles everywhere...," said the nobel laureate and author of "Irrational Exuberance." Dr. Schiller famously predicted the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the crash of the housing market in 2007, so … Continue reading Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…
My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets and as such kept under a microscope by an army of analysts worldwide. Recently a relatively minor drop in yields left the … Continue reading Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.
Hurricane science for investors and traders
As tropical storm Elsa powers toward Florida, a new hurricane season is upon us. Hurricanes are one of the starkest cases of nature’s elements having a direct impact on financial and commodities markets. If a storm hits the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico with sufficient strength, it can cause … Continue reading Hurricane science for investors and traders
How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself. Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…