The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis

On August 15, 2021 when the Taliban took over Kabul, I posted an analysis in which I noted that the event would prove to have very far-reaching consequences and that it would be the United Kingdom which might sustain the greatest setback from it (a 14-min video report is here). This was confirmed by an … Continue reading The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis

My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following

Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?

BITCOIN: a buy at $32,000?

Over the past four weeks Bitcoin's price fluctuations have traced an interesting pattern that suggest a favorable risk-reward ratio, an acceptable point of entry (at the time of this writing at about $32,600), close stop-loss point and a much more open upside potential. The analysis is offered in the following 7-minute YouTube video report: https://youtu.be/O1Q0FsycUO0

The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio

Warren Buffett warned that for a debtor nation, inflation was the economic equivalent of the hydrogen bomb. Runaway inflations tend to emerge when an economy’s debt burden becomes unsustainable usually as a consequence of too much government spending and too much war. For a while now, nearly all categories of debt in the U.S. economy … Continue reading The coming inflation tsunami and how to protect your portfolio

About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!

A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…Arthur Burns While the the ultimate resolution of the current economic imbalances will have very significant long-term consequences, it also has important shorter-term implications for investors. Namely, the fear of banking collapse has driven … Continue reading About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead!

The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?

A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone...Arthur Burns (Federal Reserve Chairman and Milton Friedman's economics professor) Since the last financial crisis, Renegade Inc. has produced a long series of documentary programs and interviews with leading economists and thinkers like Richard … Continue reading The next stage: banking crisis or inflation?

Inflation: lessons from last empire’s collapse

In spite of the obvious differences betewen the Soviet and U.S. economies there are disconcerting parallels between the systemic roots of their respective crises (USSR in 1980s and USA today).USSR's stalling GDP growth, growing 'defence' budget and balooning budget deficits ultimately led to currency debasement and high inflation. There's every likelihood that U.S. dollar will … Continue reading Inflation: lessons from last empire’s collapse

Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…

In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…