The foregoing is part of this morning's TrendCompass newsletter: The Biden Administration made a sharp policy turn yesterday by announcing that it would set 8,500 US Troops on high alert for possible future deployment to Eastern Europe. The measure is almost meaningless, but it favors further escalation of conflict which could ultimately galvanize a much … Continue reading War drive is coming from London
Articles
Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
Everything bubble’s end game
The S&P 500 closed 2021 at a new all-time high, indicating that the ongoing central bank monetary experiment is nowhere near winding down: For years now, we’ve seen many compelling analyses, usually based on valuation issues or macroeconomic risks, predicting an imminent crash and explain why the bull market just could not continue for long. … Continue reading Everything bubble’s end game
TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
CTAs: are US Treasuries about to rally?
The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets. While the recent Treasury price fluctuations might have lulled many a trader to sleep, today's signal on 30-year T-Bond futures should snap … Continue reading CTAs: are US Treasuries about to rally?
So Russia wins again?
It would appear that the West’s desperate gambit to “isolate” Russia and punish her for her “aggression” will fall flat on its face. The recent escalation of tensions between the US and Russia is so utterly bizarre, it truly defies all sensible explanations. It took a dangerous turn for the worse with the Washington Post’s … Continue reading So Russia wins again?
Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…
From Monday's TrendCompass report: On 23 October, Yale economics professor, Robert Schiller gave a speech to a gathering of investors in Los Angeles. "I see bubbles everywhere...," said the nobel laureate and author of "Irrational Exuberance." Dr. Schiller famously predicted the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the crash of the housing market in 2007, so … Continue reading Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…
The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis
On August 15, 2021 when the Taliban took over Kabul, I posted an analysis in which I noted that the event would prove to have very far-reaching consequences and that it would be the United Kingdom which might sustain the greatest setback from it (a 14-min video report is here). This was confirmed by an … Continue reading The fall of Global Britain – an investment hypothesis
I-System Trend Following 