The core twin hypotheses behind I-System Trend Following and this newsletter are that, Market trends are far and away the most potent drivers of investment performance, and that Systematic trend following is the most reliable way to capture value from trends. But as I mentioned before, getting the best long-term results out of systematic trend … Continue reading Markets move in trends: the Cocoa edition
Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
On the morning of 12 January 2024, the United States and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes against some 60 Houthi (Ansar Allah) targets across Yemen in an attempt to check their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In spite of claiming … Continue reading Middle Eastern tensions: is the oil price about to explode?
Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
It has long been my contention that in securities markets, prices lead and narratives follow, as I summed up in this 2016 article: "Market facts vs. market narratives." Yesterday we had another case in point: the price of Crude Oil rallied and the media rushed a slew of articles and commentary explaining the move. ZeroHedge … Continue reading Market experts: crude oil to go to $12 or $65 or $150 or $380 per barrel…
Geopolitics, markets and trend following
If you trade, trend following could prove your protector guardian through the coming market turbulence - do not fly blind. Over the past 10 weeks I-System trend following strategies generated $50 per barrel in profits from the oil price rise - $50,000 per Brent futures contract. Here's how. Following trends vs. trading the news Over … Continue reading Geopolitics, markets and trend following
The cultural drag on the price of Gold
For a chart analyst, the price of Gold has been looking like a "buy" for months now. On 29 December a number of our CTA strategies generated BUY signals on COMEX Gold and on the occasion, I published an analysis titled, "TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!" The case was simple, really: for some … Continue reading The cultural drag on the price of Gold
Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
In December 2020 I published the article, "The Coming Inflation Tsunami and How to Protect Your Portfolio," warning that inflation could burst forth suddenly and with force, that it would have devastating effects on investor wealth and that exposure to commodity futures represents the best possible hedge against inflation. At the time, the feedback from … Continue reading Inflation and the coming commodity super-cycle
Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
So Russia wins again?
It would appear that the West’s desperate gambit to “isolate” Russia and punish her for her “aggression” will fall flat on its face. The recent escalation of tensions between the US and Russia is so utterly bizarre, it truly defies all sensible explanations. It took a dangerous turn for the worse with the Washington Post’s … Continue reading So Russia wins again?
Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
I-System Trend Following 