On Friday, 15 May I posted an impromptu analysis warning about the imminent price correction or reversal for Bitcoin. The article I published on ZeroHedge got some 7,300 reads and 24 comments. Chart analysis: not rocket science - but still scoffed at as superstition by the learned expert class. Although the analysis could not have … Continue reading Bitcoin and the problem of uncertainty
Bitcoin has been one of the favorite objects of trading speculation in the recent years: it's vaulted over six million percent with compound annual return of more than 200% every year since 2009 (h/t Raoul Pal). https://youtu.be/Qn-7oFKXsE8 Even just in the last 12 months, it has gone up from under $10,000 to over $63,000. However, … Continue reading Bitcoin reversal? Three technical warning signs!
After much thought and preparations I am delighted to announce the launch of MARKETS, TRENDS and PROFITS channel on YouTube. The mission behind I-System Trend Following and this channel is to explore financial markets and the secrets of investing profitably -FOR THE LONG TERM. What we’ll cover here is not commonly taught in university courses … Continue reading Money management: strategy vs. gimmicks and why it matters
Over the last two decades, tens of millions of people have opted to open brokerage accounts and manage their own investment portfolios. However, according to those brokerage's figures, as many as 76% of them lose money. The reason is that they trade either with flawed strategies or no strategy at all. Particularly today, at the … Continue reading Invest profitably for the long-term, with confidence and peace of mind!
After the 2008/9 financial crisis, managed futures funds emerged victorious from the rubble. As equity markets around the world collapsed and most hedge fund strategies sustained severe losses, the CTAs generated strong positive performance, because most of them rely on systematic trend following strategies, which means that they tend to perform well during bear markets. … Continue reading Trend following: why it fell from grace and why it will rise again
Our Major Markets portfolio consists of 180 trend following strategies (long, medium and short cycle trends) in 15 of the most important markets for global investors. Daily TrendCompass reports convey the directional exposure and trading signals for all these strategies. Here we'll look at the performance of these signals from the start of 2020 through … Continue reading TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review
Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
One of the frequently voiced misgivings about systematic trading strategies usually goes like this: “yes, but your model can’t know if tomorrow XYZ happens and market prices go haywire…” The immediate aftermath of U.S. elections saw fairly volatile market reactions particularly in equities and treasuries. Both had previously turned slightly bearish but on November 4, … Continue reading I-System trend following vs. unforeseen market events
This week’s oil price tremors have again validated the idea that understanding Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies "can provide a strong edge in today's highly systematized markets," (Nomura) and that "CTAs have long been key in understanding price action in commodities” (Rabobank). As a rule, CTAs rely on systematic trend following strategies. Even Paul Tudor … Continue reading I-System Trend Following and the recent oil price events
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?