A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation
If you trade, trend following could prove your protector guardian through the coming market turbulence - do not fly blind. Over the past 10 weeks I-System trend following strategies generated $50 per barrel in profits from the oil price rise - $50,000 per Brent futures contract. Here's how. Following trends vs. trading the news Over … Continue reading Geopolitics, markets and trend following
For a chart analyst, the price of Gold has been looking like a "buy" for months now. On 29 December a number of our CTA strategies generated BUY signals on COMEX Gold and on the occasion, I published an analysis titled, "TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!" The case was simple, really: for some … Continue reading The cultural drag on the price of Gold
After a +127%, 15-month rally that peaked last May, Copper has been drifting in a volatile horizontal range: For CTAs, this has made Copper a tough market to trade in 2021. Below is the individual and cumulative performance of 12 I-System strategies which represent a set of long-, medium- and short-cycle systematic trend following strategies … Continue reading Trend following: will CTAs be dumping Copper today?
On Tuesday last week (4 January), the markets got spooked by the released minutes of a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting held three weeks prior. What was the fuss all about? Well the minutes indicated that the Fed seems to be inclined to envision starting to prepare to begin planning to initiate raising interest … Continue reading Will the Fed walk the hawkish talk?
Gold has been a negative performer in 2021 losing about 5% in a lackluster year. However, while it's been fluctuating in a torturous horizontal range during the year, the technical picture has been improving markedly since last summer: Longer-term, there's no question that the Gold price is in an intact uptrend. In spite of a … Continue reading TrendCompass: a strong BUY signal on Gold!
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
From Monday's TrendCompass report: On 23 October, Yale economics professor, Robert Schiller gave a speech to a gathering of investors in Los Angeles. "I see bubbles everywhere...," said the nobel laureate and author of "Irrational Exuberance." Dr. Schiller famously predicted the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the crash of the housing market in 2007, so … Continue reading Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…
Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?