One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself. Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
I-System: probably the best trend following model ever built
This is not a hollow boast. While I-System has generated superb performance over the years, the key reason for this claim reflects a higher-order quality of the model: I-System has the potential to entirely transcend uncertainty and largely replace the human factor in asset management in a broad variety of investment strategies including portfolio allocation, … Continue reading I-System: probably the best trend following model ever built
Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?
Over the past few trading sessions, I-System strategies have gradually reversed from long to short positions on treasury futures (long gilt, German bund, US 30-yr T-Bond), with the exception of the 10-year T-Note where our positioning remains net long. This could be a significant development if we are looking at the beginning of a major … Continue reading Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?
I-System and COMEX Copper trading
Copper market is an important indicator of the overall economic activity. Given the pervasive uncertainty over the last 12 months, the price of Copper has staged two major trend reversals – never a good environment for trend followers. Nonetheless, with the last two months’ rally, I-System strategies have again proven their worth. Performance of the … Continue reading I-System and COMEX Copper trading
I-System and the 2020 oil price roller-coaster…
Oil price has had a wild ride this year, crashing nearly 80% from January through April. I-System strategies navigated the event remarkably well, capturing more than $42/bbl in profits. At the time, I summarized this in my article, “With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!” But trend following does less well during trend reversals … Continue reading I-System and the 2020 oil price roller-coaster…
Market trends are the most powerful drivers of long-term investment performance
In my April report I suggested that effective trend following required discipline and a good deal of patience. In this report we discuss the strategy’s proper objective, which leads compellingly to the conclusion articulated in this article's title. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crgudbifQNY We are after outsized, long-term windfalls Many individual traders obsess over short term gains or even … Continue reading Market trends are the most powerful drivers of long-term investment performance
Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
The most fundamental determining fact in connection with organization is the meeting of uncertainty. The responsible decisions in organized economic life are price decisions; others can be reduced to routine Frank Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of … Continue reading Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?
In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?
I-System Trend Following 