The market for U.S. Treasury securities is the single largest market in the world. It sets the interest rates on American government debt which is the most important price in the global markets and as such kept under a microscope by an army of analysts worldwide. Recently a relatively minor drop in yields left the … Continue reading Treasury yields crash: as experts scramble for clues, trend followers profit.
BITCOIN: a buy at $32,000?
Over the past four weeks Bitcoin's price fluctuations have traced an interesting pattern that suggest a favorable risk-reward ratio, an acceptable point of entry (at the time of this writing at about $32,600), close stop-loss point and a much more open upside potential. The analysis is offered in the following 7-minute YouTube video report: https://youtu.be/O1Q0FsycUO0
Bitcoin and the problem of uncertainty
On Friday, 15 May I posted an impromptu analysis warning about the imminent price correction or reversal for Bitcoin. The article I published on ZeroHedge got some 7,300 reads and 24 comments. Chart analysis: not rocket science - but still scoffed at as superstition by the learned expert class. Although the analysis could not have … Continue reading Bitcoin and the problem of uncertainty
Bitcoin reversal? Three technical warning signs!
Bitcoin has been one of the favorite objects of trading speculation in the recent years: it's vaulted over six million percent with compound annual return of more than 200% every year since 2009. https://youtu.be/Qn-7oFKXsE8 Even just in the last 12 months, it has gone up from under $10,000 to over $63,000. However, in the last … Continue reading Bitcoin reversal? Three technical warning signs!
TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review
Our Major Markets portfolio consists of 180 trend following strategies (long, medium and short cycle trends) in 15 of the most important markets for global investors. Daily TrendCompass reports convey the directional exposure and trading signals for all these strategies. Here we'll look at the performance of these signals from the start of 2020 through … Continue reading TrendCompass Major Markets 2020/21 performance review
CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible."Paul Tudor Jones, "The Great Monetary Inflation" - May, 2020 Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan, Rabobank and others watch CTA hedge funds' … Continue reading CTAs and the treasuries reversal: time to pay attention?
How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself. Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?
Over the past few trading sessions, I-System strategies have gradually reversed from long to short positions on treasury futures (long gilt, German bund, US 30-yr T-Bond), with the exception of the 10-year T-Note where our positioning remains net long. This could be a significant development if we are looking at the beginning of a major … Continue reading Are treasury futures signaling a trend reversal?
I-System and COMEX Copper trading
Copper market is an important indicator of the overall economic activity. Given the pervasive uncertainty over the last 12 months, the price of Copper has staged two major trend reversals – never a good environment for trend followers. Nonetheless, with the last two months’ rally, I-System strategies have again proven their worth. Performance of the … Continue reading I-System and COMEX Copper trading
Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
The most fundamental determining fact in connection with organization is the meeting of uncertainty. The responsible decisions in organized economic life are price decisions; others can be reduced to routine Frank Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" Over the years I’d written many articles suggesting that price forecasting based on market fundamentals is a waste of … Continue reading Trend following: the only valid answer to the problem of uncertainty
I-System Trend Following 