Food production and the fossil fuel industries are not the only ones on the globalists' chopping block. Last weekend I was invited to a zoom call with the German firebrand MEP Christine Anderson who gave us a brief report about the recent vote in the EU parliament to extend the Covid pass requirement for another year. The … Continue reading A small short? The coming collapse of the air travel industry
Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks
Stock investors tend to obsess about stock picks, with desire to discover the new Apple, Google, Tesla or some such stock that could make all the difference. But even when they discover them, most investors never take full advantage of these discoveries. The reason is rooted in human psychology. It's what psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called "failure … Continue reading Investing is about STRATEGY, not about stock picks
Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
Last week Bank of America published another market report, helpfully summarized by ZeroHedge. BoA's chief market strategist Michael Hartnett has been turning increasingly bearish and expects that a coming [interest] "rates shock" will burst the asset bubble. This is in fact very much possible and there’s a 50% chance that Hartnett is right (heads, he’s … Continue reading Do not bet against the bubble – not yet…
My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!
Tens of millions of individual investors worldwide took the step of setting up their own brokerage accounts to actively manage their portfolios. Unfortunately, most of them lose money: an 11-year study published by the UK regulator FCA found that 82% of them lose money. The data published by many of the retail brokers corroborate this. … Continue reading Warren Buffett and Ben Graham: momentum players, NOT value investors!
Market trends: far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance
More than a century of empirical data covering 18 of the world’s largest stock markets show beyond a shadow of doubt that market trends are the most powerful drivers of investment performance. The foundations of a successful long-term investment management practice should rest on four pillars: Truth Strategy Discipline Patience Truth is what we try … Continue reading Market trends: far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance
How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
For indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.Benjamin Graham This is a rather spectacular story. It is 20 years old but it is as relevant today as it ever was for it sheds light on one of the key problems in investment speculation: human psychology. … Continue reading How Stan Druckenmiller missed market top by an hour and lost half his fund
Market trends are the most powerful drivers of long-term investment performance
In my April report I suggested that effective trend following required discipline and a good deal of patience. In this report we discuss the strategy’s proper objective, which leads compellingly to the conclusion articulated in this article's title. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crgudbifQNY We are after outsized, long-term windfalls Many individual traders obsess over short term gains or even … Continue reading Market trends are the most powerful drivers of long-term investment performance
Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
In April I suggested that, between the bear market and bubble reflation, the latter was the more likely scenario. So far so good.Presently economic data is the worst we've seen in the living memory and stocks close to most overvalued ever. Now we have mass riots. Nonetheless stocks rise...As David Zervos recently said, looking at … Continue reading Will bulls or bears celebrate? Probably the bulls, right off the cliff…
Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?
In March 2019, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and … Continue reading Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?