With all that’s going on in the world, worrying about your investment portfolio may seem like a distraction. Over the last few years the issues of politics, public health and war took the spotlight. Still however, managing our savings and safeguarding their purchasing power must remain a central concern; as Doug Casey put it in … Continue reading The miracle of trend following
Inflation is here to stay
Inflation expectations in the US have tapared off since May, but inflation genie won't be put back into the bottle easily. The chart above shows University of Michigan Inflation Expectations. While it's soared from 2021, it peaked in April and May 2022 and started to come down since then. But let's take a slightly longer … Continue reading Inflation is here to stay
Truth and trend following in speculation
A sustainable approach to investment management should be based on four key principles: truthstrategydisciplinepatience I think nobody would object to the last three of these principles, but "truth" always gets the conversation going. This is all particularly relevant in today’s environment of deepening uncertainty. Discerning truth What I mean by truth is multifaceted, but mainly … Continue reading Truth and trend following in speculation
My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Markets move in trends. This is a glaringly obvious fact for anyone with eyes to see. In fact, already 2000 years ago in his timeless classic, "The Art of War," Sun Tzu identified trends as one of the three great avenues of opportunity. In spite of that, the idea that markets move in trends is … Continue reading My University of Texas guest lecture on trend following
Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
As we approach the autumn season, the charts of both Gold and Silver look very interesting, suggesting that over the next few months we could see very significant price events in both precious metals. I base this purely on my reading of Gold and Silver price charts but I’ll also address some unprecedented anomalies in … Continue reading Are Gold and Silver due for an explosive rally?
Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire
Former Fed Chairman Arthur Burns said that, “A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone.” So far as large affairs go, the recent events in Afghanistan could hardly be any larger. On Sunday, 15 August Taliban fighters entered Kabul unopposed and … Continue reading Why the loss of Afghanistan will ultimately end the Empire
Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case
One of the greatest worries for investors and savers – and also everyone living on fixed income – is inflation, which could accelerate to levels not seen since the 1970s. One of the asset classes that ofer effective protection from inflation are precious metals. Over the recent months, as many commodities have rallied strongly (Oats, … Continue reading Is it a buy? Gold and Silver prices round-out a bullish technical case
My interview with Michael Covel on the “Trend Following Radio” podcast
I recently gave an interview to Michael Covel of "Trend Following Radio" podcast which I found thoroughly enjoyable and stimulating. Over the years I've read much of Michael's articles, interviews and one of his books so I already knew we were very much on the same wavelength when it came to investment trading, but our … Continue reading My interview with Michael Covel on the “Trend Following Radio” podcast
Invest profitably for the long-term, with confidence and peace of mind!
Over the last two decades, tens of millions of people have opted to open brokerage accounts and manage their own investment portfolios. However, according to those brokerage's figures, as many as 76% of them lose money. The reason is that they trade either with flawed strategies or no strategy at all. Particularly today, at the … Continue reading Invest profitably for the long-term, with confidence and peace of mind!
Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
Over the past few months, there's been a growing consensus among market analysts that commodity markets will likely outperform other asset classes over the next decade. This has been my contention as well. One of the readers of our newsletters asked a simple question: why do I not just buy a commodity ETF? It's actually … Continue reading Navigating the commodities super-cycle: trend following or long-only ETF?
I-System Trend Following 